Amusing Science

The most amusing read in the Scientific American is their regular feature called 50, 100 & 150 Years Ago. It is a compilation of what appeared in this very magazine so many years ago. Some of them make a very interesting read, such as this one ... It is called Electric Theory and appeared in the magazine in April 1860.

The results of the experiments instituted by Sir William Grove are exceedingly curious, and must be regarded as all but proving the truth of the modern theory, which assumes that electricity is not, in any sense, a material substance but only an affection (state) or motion of the particles of ordinary matter. If electricity is unable to pass over or through a vacuum, it is probable that all other so-called imponderable forces - light, heat, magnetism, and possibly attraction - obey the same law, and as these agencies freely travel the interplanetary spaces, the supposition of Newton that such spaces may be filled with an ethereal form of matter receives an indirect but powerful support.

Note the flow of 'logic' here: an experiment on the nature of electricity is extrapolated by using "probable" and finally an assertion - "powerful support". Now, it is not clear if this logic was proposed by Sir William Grove or the reported who put together the article, though I have a very good idea about it.

We may laugh about it now. But the fact remains that science progresses by propounding and then challenging hypothesis. One wonders 150 years from today, what will seem so comical. Dark matter, Dark Energy, Environmental debate? Any guesses?

Miracles and Expectations

I hope for miracles.
But I do not expect it.
Even if it is something as big as the Copenhagen meet.

I certainly do not expect that one Mr. Obama will go to his country and tell his people that he has agreed to a huge cut in our carbon emission because we are rich enough. So please slow down your growth, divert your valuable resources to find greener solutions; so what if unemployment grows for some time. After all saving Earth is more important that unemployment, right? And oh by the way, I have also pledged huge amount of money to the developing and underdeveloped country.

I also do not expect one Mr. Manmohan Singh to go to his (and my) country and tell his countrymen that he has agreed to huge cuts in carbon emission since we have achieved sufficient progress. The world knows we could become an economic power some day. So for some time let us not worry about the millions who still live under or very near the poverty line. Let's get the environment under control, let us save our future generations; so what if the present generation suffers a little.

You actually think heads of nation can solve this mess?
Then you are naive.

Yeah you have heard / seen those massive protest rallies; but you seriously think the rest of the world is worried. We may tut-tut for some time, but then drive down to a shop 10 minutes from our house in a car.

We human have a peculiar characteristic. We think that we take actions taking into account long-term effect but actually we react only when the danger is imminent and effects us. In this way we are different from animals. They also react when the danger is imminent. But at least they do not claim to take long-term into consideration.

Yes I do believe in miracles.
I will continue to do so.

"Hum ko maloom hai jannat ki hakikat lekin;
Dil ko khush rakhney ko Ghalib yeh khayal achcha hai"
I know the truth about heaven; however it is a happy thought to have.

Global Warming: A Story of Hard(ly) Scientific Data and Gimmicks

Shortly after Maladives holding underwater cabinet meeting (see here), we have Nepal holding cabinet meeting on the slopes of the Everest (see here).

Perhaps they are not aware of the very basis of IPCC's dooms day warning lies in shambles (see here)

We do not need gimmicks ... we need quick action based on hard scientific data.

Hard scientific data? Are you joking? Read this here.

Don't buy that jeans! Save Water!

Oh! You love that jeans.
It has the cut that you think will be a perfect fit.
So what you have two already?
This one is just perfect.

Stop!
Consider this: the amount of water it takes to produce a pair of denim jeans is about 11 cubic meters. This is equal to the capacity of a standard-size tank truck.
That much!

It is easy to lose sight of the fact that freshwater that is so essential for our living is in limited supply. Not sure where I read this: The third world war will be fought over water. Increasing demand for more water for drinking, hygiene, sanitation, food production, and industry, tends to support this.

While there are many low-tech approaches that can help prevent scarcity - the governments need to be wise enough to plan for and implement them, though - we need to do our bit. As with Global Warming, preventing Fresh Water Crisis demands, first and foremost, change in life style.

Like carbon footprint, there is something called water footprint. A person's water footprint is the volume of freshwater the individual uses directly and in production of the goods and services he or she consumes.

Find your water foot print at: www.waterfootprint.org

Do you still want to buy that new pair of jeans?

PS: I have taken the above information from an old issue (August 2008) of Scientific American India.

COP15 - It's All About Location

Someone chose wisely.

For some time I actually thought the 'COP' in COP15 (The United Nations Climate Change Conference) stood for Copenhagen. Turns out that COP stands for Conference Of Parties and this is the 15th such, hence the name COP15.

In any case, no place could be better than Copenhagen for such a conference.

Copenhagen is regarded as the most environmental friendly city in the world.
The whole city revolves around the concept of green.
Around 37% of the population go to work on bicycles. And the figure is rising.
Organic produce is an in thing there.
The hotels are rated on how 'green' they are.
The street lighting is environmental friendly.

With so much emphasis on environment, one would assume that companies would shy away from investing there.
Well, what do you know!
It ranks high in the list of desirable locations to invest.

So green makes business sense too.

PS: Have you signed up the Seal The Deal Petition yet?

Make your voice heard - Seal the Deal

In another 100 days (7th December 2009) environment ministers from all over the world will meet in Copenhangen to discuss environmental issues and thrash out a new climate treaty that will succeed the Kyoto Protocol.

Governments have been playing politics as the environment continues to deteriorate. Time you make your voice heard. UNited Nations has launched a worldwide campaign on climate change. It is called SEAL THE DEAL. Go to the Seal the Deal website and sign the petition for a fair climate agreement at the Copenhagen conference.

Even if you do not believe in Global Warming - for whatever reason - it is worth trying to create a greener and cleaner earth, isn't it?

Global Warming - Fact or Fiction

In a planet far, far away there lived a carbon-based species who evolved to such great heights that they developed silicon-based intelligence that could live. The silicon-based intelligence could assemble its own kind and thus procreate. The carbon-based living things also destroyed their own environment by not understanding that they were products of the environment and dependent on it. That planet is now inhabited by silicon-based intelligence (basically, robots). Once in a while they send their UFOs to visit us. When the UFOs go back and report about Global Warming, many robots shake their heads in disbelief: Are the carbon-based intelligence destined to repeat history? Will they always grow in intelligence but not in wisdom? Some are pleased: they anyways are looking out for other planets to inhabit - they are running short of space; let the earthling destroy themselves. We will secure the place without a fight. What fun!

You think this is fiction?
Prove it!

Global Warming and God

There could be up to four responses to the perceived threat of Global Warming.

(a) The threat is real and I want to do something about it. And make some feeble attempts at it.
(b) The threat is real but there is nothing I can do about it.
(c) The threat does not exist. Global Warming is hyped.
(d) So what?

You would go wrong if you pick up any of the above options.

Because if you are concerned and perceive the threat as real, you would already be ...

(i) Cycling to work
(ii) Harvesting rain water
(iii) Teaching your kids / rooms mates / family members why the taps need to be closed while brushing
(iv) Replaced all incandescent bulbs with CFL bulbs
(v) Experimenting with new ideas to reverse the trend

You would choose option (e)The threat is real and present. And I *am* acting to change the world.

In that aspect Global Warming is like God. If God does not exist, believing or not is not going to harm you. But if s/he exists, then you better believe. It logically flows that since we do not know, it is safe to believe.

Similarly, it is better to accept that Global Warming is taking place and act accordingly.

Mom! I Changed The World!

The saddest and yet the most telling comment describing the human impact on environment ...

As Nate Lewis remarked to me one day: "You remember when you were a kid, your mom would ask you what you wanted to do when you grew up and you would say, 'I want to change the world'? Well, guess what, Mom: We did."

This is from Hot, Flat, and Crowded by Thomas L. Friedman.

Sudden interest in change management

Are people more concerned about environment or change?

In the past 7 days my lens on Our Iceberg Is Melting, which is a book on Change Management - despite the green title, has received 42 hits.

Ok! It is not as if this lens is getting some hundreds of thousands of hits per day; but considering the fact that it used to get some 6-7 hits per week this is a 6-fold jump.

I wonder if this sudden interest in change management is triggered by environment or economy.

Of modeling and predictions

Model of a system is not the system. It is an approximation, by definition.

When one models a system, certain assumptions are made, some aspects of the system is taken as invariable or at times independent of each other.

How then is one to determine if the approximation, the model makes sense?

The success of a model depends on its ability to predict. Models can be twisted and turned to fit the existing data and therefore can explain the known or the past in the most brilliant way possible. But if the model cannot predict the unknown or the future, then it is of no use. Einstein's model of the universe is an approximation but makes sense because it could predict certain phenomena that was till then unknown or unexplained. The success of environmental models will lie in its predictability. Unfortunately, we will get to know of the models' success only when it is too late.

I recently read (see here) that reduction in pollution will actually result in increased global warming. How? Pollution causes scattering of light which enables more leaves even those that are not at the top to carry out the process of photosynthesis at increased efficiency. Reduction in pollution will reduce the scattering and hence low photosynthesis resulting in low carbon absorption. So either you die of pollution or due to global warming! Nice!

The book I am reading now, The Logic of Life, by Tim Harford, is also about modeling. The premises are simple but effective. Human beings are capable of reacting to any situation rationally as well as irrationally. The book models the human society as rational and explores various non-economic issues. From what I have read so far, the rational model seems to be explaining the past well. There is no prediction of the future. I am hoping desperately that the book will make predictions somewhere down the line. But I won't be disappointed if there are none. Why? Well, if economic (and financial) models were that good at predicting, we wouldn't be facing the worst global financial crisis of all times, now would we?

Picture courtesy: Tory Byrne

Global Warming Index

Global Warming is the new stock exchange index.

There is not a day when we read something on Global Warming in the newspapers. And like stock exchange index it keeps swinging from one end to another. Today's Times of India carries a news article, "Is global warming slowing down?" No that is not a typo. It is 'Global Warming' not 'Global Economy'. Heh! Heh! "Is Global Economy Slowing Down?" is not a news anymore.

Ok! Here's what it says:

A new study has determined that global warming may have hit a speed bump and could slow down for decades. Earth's climate continues to confound scientists. [Now they tell us!] Following a 30-year trend of warming, temperatures have flatlined since 2001 despite rising greenhouse gas concentrations, and a heat surplus that should have cranked up the planetary thermostat.

Watch tomorrow's newspaper for a diametrically opposite news. Want to invest money in Gloabl warming Index?

Just as a side note, the people of Bangalore would like some scientific opinion on local warming. It is not yet summer but it feels like peak summer right now. This year also saw very cold winter.

Picture courtesy: miamiamia

Problem And Solution

"It is getting hotter by the day. It is all that global warming."

"The traffic condition is worsening by the day. Why doesn't someone do anything about it?"

"Nothing works without paying bribe. These guys are all corrupt."

"Politicians are all corrupt."

"Why should I pay taxes. I do not see any of my money being used properly. It only lines someones pocket."

"Things are so expensive."

"The police does not do anything to the rich."

"The finance minister only taxes the working class. The rich only get richer. And they do not pay any taxes."

"The condition of roads is so bad."

I hear this all the time ...

My response: "Are you part of the problem or part of the solution? If you are not part of the solution, then you are part of the problem. You cannot be just an observer."

Picture Courtesy: Steve Woods

Present and Immediate Danger

It took me a long time to figure this out but I have got it in the end.
I think.

Ok! Here's a question for you: Assume you know someone obese and he has a 80% chance of getting an heart attack in the next 10 years; and he is offered a medical insurance. Which insurance should he take?

a) Insurance that covers all his heart related disease.
b) Insurance that covers diabetes.
c) Insurance that covers all diseases.

If you have answered (a), then you are like the rest of us. Absolutely logical. But like most of us, wrong.
You see, (c) is a super set of (a) and (b) - (c) automatically covers (a) and (b).

What do you think the insurance man agent is going to push for?
You are right. (a). He may not even mention (c). Nor will the insuree - is that the word - ask about it.
The chances are that the premium for (a) is higher because the demand for (a) is higher.

We, humans, are wired to take into account present and immediate threat. That has saved us as a race for the last few million years. 'Present and Immediate' means we can see these threats coming. But this can also makes us vulnerable to hype. We can be made to see things that would otherwise not be apparent to us.

We can 'see' Global Warming coming, can we not?

We can see factories bellowing thick, black smoke.
We can see white, harmful smoke from the cars.
Our eyes sting when we stop at traffic lights and vehicles are idling.
We feel warmer every summer.

The obvious conclusion as repeated ad nauseum by magazines and newspapers is that the green house gas will cause global warming. And we are concerned.

We should be. Or should we be?

What about the good old concern about pollution?

In all this hype(?) about Global Warming, I rarely read any more about the impact of air pollution on our health.
What about the polluted rivers?
They don't cause Global Warming (or perhaps they do - I am sure some causal relationship can be figured out if you try hard enough) so you don't get to hear about that any more.

Tell me frankly. When was the last time you read an article in newspaper or a magazine the number of deaths due to pollution? Think hard.

Hmmm... sometimes, it is good to react to the 'present and immediate'.
I am all for systemic analysis (more on that in my blog, shortly) and take into account "in the long run" but for that we need to be alive in the long run.

Now consider the impact of taking away the present and immediate threat (pollution) and replacing this with a bigger picture (Gloal Warming).
Because pollution is no longer in our mind, we click our disapproval at all those people (always the other people) causing Global Warming when we read the newspapers, but do nothing about it.
We continue to air our disapproval but do not think twice while driving down to the nearest departmental store.

What do you think will affect us more?
a) A daily headline in the newspaper screaming number of hospitalisation and deaths due to pollution
b) A daily headline in the newspaper telling us about the possibilities of Global Warming in 20 years.


If you have answered (a), then you are like the rest of us. Absolutely logical. And correct.

Note: The picture used belongs to "jaylopez" (see gallery)

Cycling, Education and Tender Coconut

Please do me a favour. Pass this post to some you know who needs education ...

While in Bangalore, if you happen to see a person with a laptop on his back and a maroon helmet, on a Trek3700 pedaling furiously on the Old Airport Road, please

• do not show off your driving skills by brushing past him - there is enough space on the road for all of us
• do not honk as you approach him - he is not deaf and definitely not suicidal
• do not stare at him - haven't you see cyclists with helmet before? Besides, it is impolite to stare
• do not drive on the wrong side of the road, even if it is early morning and the traffic police is not around - that causes accidents and just goes to show that you are a moron
• do not look out only for bigger vehicles while crossing the road - cycles have mass too and can travel at high speeds
• and definitely do not knock him down - that will be the end of this blog.

This rant is not aimed at anyone specific. Rather a sort of open letter to some characters I have the misfortune of encountering on Bangalore roads as I commute to office (unfortunately, the commuting is not as frequent as I wish to).

And to my regular readers and occasional visitors - the more decent human beings on this planet (any one reading my blog has to be one :-)) - please find out means of reducing your carbon footprint. I am not sure about the global warming bit, but am surely concerned about the impact of pollution on health.

Here are some ways ...

• Walk to your nearest grocery store: it will only take you a few extra minutes.
• If you have to use your vehicle, plan so that the path taken is optimum (the shortest path may not always be the fastest).
• Declare at least one day per month, if not one day every weekend, a car/motorbike-free day.
• Teach your children, if you have one or whenever you have one, to enjoy cycling. Buy them good, smart looking bikes.

And, of yes, patronize your local tender coconut seller. He is a life saver for us cyclists.

Note: The picture used here belongs to Svetlana Maksimovic. To see more of her photographs visit her gallery.

The picture of the tender coconut belongs to Manu M. Go to his gallery to see more pictures.

Predictions For 31st December 2009

You may call this wishful thinking.
I call it prediction.

By 31st December 2009 ... Yes 31st December 2009 (not 2008)

1) The economic crisis turned out to be a damp squib. It recovered faster than what was predicted by the pundits. It was predicted that the recession will last the whole of 2009 and then some more. By the mid-2009 the things turned around. Economists are now predicting another 4 years of prosperity. So I guess we should look forward to a disaster soon!

2) There are indications that the environmentalists were wrong after all. Turned out that there is no conclusive evidence of a global warming. Looks like this is earth's natural cycle. Besides, scientists have discovered that the trees - with all the excess carbon-dioxide in the atmosphere - have actually grown taller and bigger. As a result, the excess CO2 has been neutralised by the oxygen produced by these trees. Man must therefore take care not to destroy trees. Governments all over the world have hailed this discovery and have promised to dedicate at least 30# of their country's land to maintain forests.

3) Pakistan's latest flirtation with democracy has ended. Midway through 2009, Nawaz Sharif was made the president. He was successful in reining in ISI to a large extent and most of the terrorist camps in Pakistan were being dismantled. However, the Army has now overthrown the civilian government in a coup. Obama and other world leaders have severely criticized the Pakistan Army. The Indian Army has increased its presence on the border.

4) India has been nominated as one of the permanent members of the UN Security Council.

5) UK has abolished Pound Sterling as its currency and has adopted the Euro. The integration of European Union is now complete.

6) Nadal becomes the first man since Rod Laver to win the Tennis Grand Slam.

I think that much is sufficient. I will revisit this post on 31st December, 2009 to see how much off I am.

7) I almost forgot ... I will get 25,000 visitors a day to my blog. Ok! Ok! This is not a prediction. This is just a dream ;)

If you wish to add your prediction, please leave a comment. I promise to send you a mail on 31st December 2009, if you leave an e-mail. Thanks.

Note: The picture used here belongs to 'CJLUC'. To see more such pictures visit his/her gallery.

Ice Age Or Global Warming - Which Do You Prefer?

This is a 2 day old news. If scientists are to be believed the greenhouse gases has actually postponed the onset of the biggest ever ice age. See here.
So if this a reason to rejoice? Scientists are not so sure. But this news sure throws open a few more avenues of scientific exploration.

Here are the questions that come to mind ...

1) Why does ice age occur? There are no definite answers. See here. A good introduction to ice age is also here.
2) What makes ice age go away?
3) It is generally agreed that 500 millions years ago the carbon dioxide concentration was 20 times that of today. The various factors that resulted in lowering of the concentration is described here. Plate tectonics is still at work. How does that effect the present increase in carbon dioxide?
4) Evolution dictates that with the increase in carbon dioxide levels, there should be larger trees. Will such giant trees counteract the increase. Or are we adding greenhouse gases too fast?
5) All future weather predictions are based on computer models. So perhaps the focus has shifted from determination of causal relationship to explain a phenomenon. The focus is now on generating a result based on the model and then explaining why something is happening. I happen to be from the old school of thought. Give me an Einstein any day.
6) All my life I have understood the weather as a chaotic system. This was even since I read Chaos: Making a New Science by James Gleick. Chaotic system by definition is the unpredictable behavior of a deterministic system. A slight change in one variable will result in a totally different end result. This could be due to a rounding off error or a truncation of a variable in the model. Could this be reason why scientists are sometimes predicting ice age and sometimes global warming. Perhaps the weather will continue to remain within the normal range (for humans, I mean) and it is only the computer generated result that is swinging from one extreme to another. Now that is a happy thought.
7) We evolve slowly. But bacteria evolves faster - much faster. Is it possible that some carbon dioxide eating bacteria has already evolved? Now, won't that be fun?
Note: The photograph used belongs to Paul Caputo. Please go here to see more such photographs.

An Open Letter To Mr. Barack Obama

Dear Mr. Obama,

Chances are that this open letter will be lost in the millions of blog entries on Internet. But then this Internet. This could find its way to you - who knows?

My opinion may not matter much to you, in any case. First, you are surrounded by men and women of exceptional standings. They are your advisers. They obviously know a thing or two about economics, politics, America and the World. Second, I am not even an American.

But here goes any ways ...

Long ago, we too elected a leader who energised a nation. He was young and he too had dreams. Rajiv Gandhi. We thought we finally had a world-change. But things happened. And then he got assassinated.

I haven't seen any other election that carried so much promise. Until now that is. Yes, Indians are thrilled by the promise your election carries, even though we know you are an American president. We are thrilled that there is another leader who is young and has dreams.

But whether you wish to remain an American president or be a world changer (this is not by default, you have to work towards it) is your decision. All your acts will obviously be guided by your that one decision. But whatever you do will have an impact round the world - whether anyone likes or not, American remains the only superpower.

So here is my wish list / advice for you.

1) Do not be the first Black president. Be the first Green President.
Understand the difference between urgent and important. To save the world economy is urgent. But to ensure that earth remains a clean home is important. Please keep a green earth your top-priority. The world economy will heal itself sooner or later.

2) Long Term versus Short Term
Your victory is to a large extent can be ascribed to the current economic situation. I am not taking away your and your team's role in the victory. But if the Bush Administration had delivered, you wouldn't have won. So obviously you will focus on reviving the American Economy. Besides, it is urgent. Entering long periods of recession is not going to help anyone. The first casualty is likely to be the earth. All attention from global warming will be diverted to earning bread. But as I have posted previously in my blog, the market is a chaotic system. Ensure that the decisions you take keep long term effect of short term actions into account. As much as possible, I mean. Your team will come up with solutions as you direct. If your attitude is come-on-let's-lick-this-problem-now-we-will-cross-other-bridges-when-we-come-to-it you are likely to get short term solutions with long term disasters. This is something to keep in mind for everything. The problem is that people will expect a quick solution from you and you will be under pressure to perform. Beware of hasty steps. They will come to haunt you later.

3) Terrorism
For some time now the world has looked to America to crush terrorism. America has used force to crush terrorism. I think such attempts are futile and foolish. Futile and foolish because the solution is not holistic. The solution is simple but for some reason hasn't been actuated. All that is needed is to choke off the fund flow into terrorist hands. Adopt a resolution similar to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Get other countries involved. Hunt for the people who finance the terrorists and who supply arms to them. Easier said than done but possible at a fraction of cost when compared to costs of direct attack - you would know better the financial and human costs of the Afghan war.

4) World Trade
Ban protectionism. Open up world trade. Will make you unpopular in America if you do it immediately. But has to be done and will happen whether America likes it or not. If the world has to prosper. Your call.

5) Listen to your conscience
America may have elected you. But the World looks at you for leadership. I will love it if India provides that leadership but that will take time. Now it is you. Before taking a decision, take a deep breath, close your eyes and listen to the small voice inside your head. Will this be good for the world or just America (for the short term, at least)? Chose to be a world leader - not just because you are the head of the most powerful democracy but because you choose to take the world along.

Here's wishing you all the very best. You know that you can't be an average president. It is either excellence or disaster. Give it your best shot.

I would hate to see another dream die.

Best Regards,
Amitabh

Battle for the North Pole

A good article is published in Der Spiegel. Discusses the race for the spoils that global warming has revealed in the Arctic region.

The countries involved in the race - USA and Russia among them - will ensure that the status granted to Antarctica and Moon is not granted to the North Pole. It is a sad state of affair since melting of the polar ice cap should be a time for rapid action to ensure reversal and not a time to exploit the riches underneath.

As for me I am glad that the big 5 are all in the northern hemisphere - not near Antarctica or the Moon.

Note: The photograph used belongs to Paul Caputo. Please go here to see more such photographs.

Nokia tops in Greenpeace ranking

I am reminded of what Thomas L Friedman said in his lecture titled 'The World is Flat 3.0' This was delivered at MIT as part of their open courseware program and can be freely downloaded on iTunesU. In this lecture he ridicules the current so called green revolution. He says: It is not a revolution. When have you heard of no one getting hurt in a revolution. It is a party out there. (or something similar to that effect).

I agree.