The Black Swan Predicted Financial Collapse

If I had pots of money, I would buy a copy of The Black Swan and distribute a copy of The Black Swan to every banker, economist and policy maker and all those hanging out at Davos.

Now, you have to remember that this book was published in 2007 and I am assuming the book would have taken about 15 months to complete (or more!) Read this extract ...

A similar effect is taking place in economic life. [G]lobalization; it is here, but it is not all for good: it creates interlocking fragility, while reducing volatility and giving the appearance of stability. In other words it creates devastating Black Swans. We have never lived before under the threat of a global collapse. Financial institutions have been merging into a smaller number of very large banks. Almost all banks are now interrelated. So the financial ecology is swelling into gigantic, incestuous, bureaucratic banks ... - when one falls, they all fall. The increased concentration among banks seems to have the effect of making financial crisis less likely, but when they happen they are more global in scale and hit us very hard.

And then in the footnote, Nassim Nicholas Taleb goes on to say ...

As if we did not have enough problems, banks are now more vulnerable to the Black Swan and ludic fallacy than ever before with "scientists" among their staff taking care of exposures. ... [T]he government sponsored institution Fanny Mae, when I look at their risks, seems to be sitting on a barrel of synamite, vulnerable to the slightest hiccup. But not to worry: their staff of scientists deemed those events "unlikely."

Spooky or what?

Just one clarification.
The Black Swan is not about prediction. It is about the unpredictable. The above extract is an example of how one should anticipate the unpredictable.

Picture Courtesy: 'Rolve'

Mathematics in India

All of you know that zero was invented in India. Right? What else do you know about Indian mathematics? Vedic mathematics, any one? Ah! I see lots of hands raised. Actually Vedic mathematics has been presented as a series of simple formula to solve mathematical problems and does a great injustice to ancient Indian mathematics. In any case it is a misnomer. It is ancient but not only from the Vedas.

It is apparent that ancient India had a great body of mathematical work. Zero cannot be a chance invention. Zero is not a number. It is a concept. And to use it along side natural number requires a well-established mathematical system in place. Not any disjointed, scattered mathematical recipes. The importance of zero is self-evident. I wouldn't be typing out this blog, but for zero. (The computer works on '0' and '1'.)

Now, for the first time, an effort has been made to collate all aspects of ancient Indian Mathematics. Kim Plofker is the author of the book called Mathematics In India. The book covers, among many other aspects, the following:

• Mathematical Thoughts in Vedic India
• Numbers and Numerals
• Mathematics in Jain and Buddhist Texts
• Mathematics and Astronomy in ancient India
• Ancient Mathematicians such as Bhaskara, Narayana Pandit
• Mathematics of Kerala

and so much more.

For a glimpse of the book you may visit the Princeton Website. You may also order the book from Amazon, by clicking here => Mathematics In India

Picture Courtesy: Jenny Rollo

Barkha Dutt Does Not Understand How Internet Works

She and NDTV lawyers have forced a blogger to withdraw his criticism and render an unconditional apology. Until now I had never heard of the blogger, named Chyetanya Kunte (he is of Indian origin based in Netherlands). Now the whole world knows him.

 
And the joke is on Barkha. Someone has gone ahead and updated Wikipedia. Click on this link and scroll down to the section, criticism.

So, now what do I know:

a) There are two facebook groups that are anti-Barkha Dutt.
b) She has been criticized by Newswatch, a media watchdog based in Delhi, for being the worst anchor in terms of sensationalizing the Mumbai Terror Strikes.

c) She has been criticized for her coverage of Kargil war, something that her famous in the first place.

The TV news coverage was criticized by many. In fact, I have posted a blog comparing the Terror Coverage to Cricket Live. These are my views. Why should I be suppressed from expressing my views?

To be fair to Ms. Barkha Dutt, I have not seen the original text of the blog. There might have been something offensive in there. We wouldn't know. It has since been withdrawn and an apology has been published. But what is she going to do about the hate groups on facebook. Or for that matter Wiki or bloggers all around the world who at this very moment must be blogging away to glory.

So, here's my advise to Ms. Barkha Dutt:

Internet cannot be controlled. It is the voice of many. There is some good stuff there and a whole lot of trash. If you are a public figure, you take it all in your stride. If someone is criticizing you, then be assured that you have arrived. If something personal has been written about you - your family, your personal life - please take action; you have every right. But sending a pack of lawyers after a blogger who has quoted wiki is not the way of going about it. You, of all people associated with media, should know this. Unless, of course, you do not know the difference between personal and professional, criticism and libel, libel and slander. I will look forward to the next episode of We The People where you will discuss this issue. I am assuming you have the guts to do so. Meanwhile, go and hunt the entire Internet to find out all bloggers who criticise you. Happy hunting.

Picture courtesy: Billy Alexander

Obama sending out the right signals

Obama is making all the right moves. So far ...

If what Guardian says is correct and Obama is actually in the process of drafting a letter to open up direct contact with Iran, he is sending out two important signals:


a) A majority of terrorists are Muslims, but all Muslims are not terrorists.
and
b) The world needs all help to neutralize terrorism.

Pakistan and Afghanistan is the hub of most terror attacks now (and by many accounts, of all future ones too). Iran provides a good access route to Afghanistan. Though I do not believe that Iran will open up access routes into Afghanistan the way Pakistan did, a friendly Iran is better than an hostile one.

My other posts on terrorism:

http://churn-news.blogspot.com/2008/11/real-terrorists.html

http://churn-news.blogspot.com/2008/11/countering-terrorism-simple-solution.html

Kindle 2.0

There are rumours that Kindle 2.0 will be released shortly. It might have colour display - right now it is only black & white - and may remove certain design defects (read below).

Just before I hear, Kindle ... what?, let me give a two line overview.

Kindleis a light-weight e-reader that is easy on the eye because of the e-paper technology. There are other e-readers in the market, and cheaper, such as Sony, but Kindle scores because of its content.

After all it is an Amazon product and there are more titles available on Kindle when compared to others. However, Kindle has a proprietary format and it is difficult to use with PDF format. There are several other design issues but the content rules. Besides, one can purchase and download (e)books, (e)magazines, blogs, etc. wirelessly on to Kindle. One could also download content over Internet.


What are the design issues?
First it is no apple product. If you expect an ubercool design, forget it.

Second, if you have ever "looked into" a book on Amazon, you would notice that the extract has two long side bars to move forward and backward. That makes it quite easy to use on a computer because you can point the mouse to any point on the side bar and move pages. Unfortunately, Kindle has duplicated this concept in a product that is held in hand. So you could accidentally depress the forward/backward key while reading.

Some people have cribbed about the lack of backlight (they are missing the point - the Kindle is supposed to replace paper and paper does not come backlit) and also about the fact that the Kindle cover does not stay (a most trivial point).

Do I have it?
Unfortunately no. It is not sold outside US.

Why do I speak of it?
Because I have spent most of my leisure hours lusting after it. I must have spent hours visiting Amazon, reading reviews and deriving vicarious pleasure from comments of those who possess Kindle.

I find it surprising that Amazon does not sell Kindle world-wide. There is such a huge market for Kindle that lies outside America. Whispernet may not be available outside of America. I do not want my newspaper delivered every morning on Kindle by wireless. but the convenience of buying and downloading books over Internet is a big plus. Just imagine having all my books on Kindle. 

Laptop ... iPod ... Kindle
Kindle will make my e-life complete.

Note: I have taken the picture of Kindle from the Amazon website.

Of Books And Movies

"The book is better than the movie."
How many times have you heard this from bibliophiles?
I have heard this from so many people that I am not sure if it is a genuine statement or just a pseudo-intellectual posturing.

I generally stick to non-fiction. So I do not get much chance to show off the book-is-better-than-the-movie. Besides I do not get to see that many movies ...

I am massive fan of the Harry Potter series. When reading non-fiction gets a bit boring, what do I turn to? Right! Harry Potter. I must have read all the seven books at least 3-4 times, if not more. I think J K Rowling is a genius and richly deserves all the accolades and rewards.

I started reading Harry Potter after the Harry Potter and Prisoner of Azkaban, the 3rd in the series, after Harry Potter and The Philosopher's Stone, and Harry Potter and The Chamber of Secrets. Or was it after the 2nd in the series? Never mind. I was introduced to it kind of late. Very late.

At first I was a little skeptic of the marketing hoo-haa that surrounded the series. Then my son dragged me to the movie Harry Potter and The Sorcerer's Stone (for some reason the name is slightly changed, must be a Hollywood thing). I was simply blown away by the magic.

The very next day, I purchased all the three (two?) books that were available.

Today, I have all the books of the Harry Potter series (pre-ordered, mind you) and DVD's of all the movies released till date. And I am eagerly waiting for the movie version of Harry Potter and The Half-Blood Prince. I read somewhere that there will be two movies based on the final book, Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows. So the magic continues for some more time.

So what do I think of the Harry Potter movies now that I have read the books?

I think both are great. The books are fantastic. The movie are great too. It is like having two stories with the same name.

Any one - and I know there are millions - who has read Harry Potter as thoroughly as I have, will acknowledge that the beauty of the book is in the tiny details that Rowling has so skilfully woven in the story. It is almost like serendipity. You read a bit in, say, the 4th book and you suddenly remember that the thread actually starts in the first one. Or, you start re-reading the first book and you realize that something that you did not pay much attention to in your first reading starts making sense now, as the thread continues in the 5th book. There are several such.

The movie obviously cannot reproduce the nuances in the book, but they are mind blowing nonetheless. It is fun to see your imagination come alive on the screen.


I love them both ... the books and the movies. Both are magic. And this is applies to all well made movies and well written books.

And I hope Rowling returns soon with something else. I really miss Harry Potter.

I read long ago that she was working on some crime novel. With her intelligence and knack of springing surprises, I cannot wait for that to be published.

Picture courtesy: Herman Brinkman

Honesty by the road side

She sells tender coconut on the road side in Bangalore. Unable to determine her exact age but definitely beyond 40. And she can teach a lesson or two in honesty to all known and still to be known corporate fraudsters.

Tender coconut is a commodity - unless you package the milk and see as a brand name. But the majority in south India just stop by at one of the many sellers that road the road side in Bangalore. The sellers make a killing at tourist spots but the price never goes beyond Rs 15. In Bangalore it varies from Rs. 10 to 12. One tender coconut seller is as good as the next. So, people stop at whim and on instinct or when convenient.

Last Saturday I needed to take my sons on a long drive to the British Library and then to the Science Museum. So I stop at this lady's so that we are well hydrated. I give her a 50 rupee note but has only Rs 12 so I waived the remainder sum of Rs 2. As I focus on the sweet milk and my children (one of them does not like the taste and I need to goad him into drinking it), I feel a tap on my shoulder. This lady has rummaged her belongings and found a Rs. 2 coin and she wanted to give it to me. As I indicate that this was not necessary, she points to the sky and indicates that God is there and that she cannot take the Rs. 2 that does not belong to her.

Pity! People, like the disgraced former chairman of Satyam Computers, Ramalinga Raju, never stop by to drink the sweet milk of tender coconut on the road side.

Picture courtesy: Manu M